HETFA Working Paper No. 2017/24

Bálint Herczeg (2017): Cost-benefit analysis of high school graduation. ISSN 2062-378X

In case of programmes targeting human resource development, evaluation shall not only focus on direct results and short-term effects. However, estimation of long-term impacts is difficult in case of programmes such as early childhood interventions, since the real effects may occur after one generation. Let’s suppose that we can estimate the impact of the programme on the probability of high school graduation. By doing so we could get a method to estimate what changes these programmes induce in the life of the targeted children.

The aim of the paper is to present a model which is able to estimate the long-term effects of childhood development and educational programmes and compare the costs with the resulting budgetary benefits. The model is illustrated by Bálint Herczeg based on the example of the Hungarian Safe Start Children Programme.